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The Form Line / Myths
Six beliefs, checked

Six beliefs about a figure, checked

Each belief below is one a reader may reasonably hold, and each is checked against the arithmetic on the rest of the desk rather than against an opinion. Four are false, one is partly true and one is true.

Open the partner accountWhat a figure cannot say
Sample spec
Beliefs checked
6
False
4
Partly
1
True
1
the stringThe finishing position of the last six runs, newest first. On the samples it carries 48 of 48 positions and 0 of 48 margins, distances, grounds or field sizes.
the markThe official rating, set so a field of similar marks finishes close together on paper. On the samples it moved on four of six runs, for a net change of 8 lb.
the allowanceThe correction applied to a standard time for the ground. On the samples the going allowance is worth 19.2 points at six furlongs, against 2.4 points for the whole weight spread.
Direct answerThe most common belief about form figures - that the highest one wins - is false in the desk's own sample, where the highest-rated runner finished third and the winner was rated fourth of eight. Three more beliefs fail for the same reason: a figure is a relative mark, a string of positions carries no margins, and the ground correction is worth more than the running.
False

The highest figure wins

In sample A the highest-rated runner finished third and the winner was rated fourth of eight; across the sample's field the top-rated runner won 3 of 8 races, or 37.5%. A figure is a summary of past runs, and the next race is not one of them.

False

An official rating measures how fast a competitor is

A mark is set so that runners carrying marks finish close together on paper, which makes it relative by construction. Sample B's mark moved four times in six runs, by up to 6 lb for a two-length win, and the same mark means a different thing in a 0-100 band and a 0-80 band.

False

The form string tells you how good the runs were

The string carries the finishing position in 48 of 48 sample runs and the distance, the ground, the field size and the margin in 0 of 48. A second beaten half a length in twelve and a second beaten eight lengths in six print the same character.

False

The ground is already inside a published figure

It is inside the calculation and not on the card: the allowance is worth 19.2 points on sample C's scale, the largest input in the race, and in sample G it is published on 0 of 40 cards while the figure it was applied to is published on 12.

Partly

A speed figure is objective

The arithmetic is: fix the standard time, the allowance and the scale and anyone gets the same number. The three inputs are choices rather than measurements, so two publishers using the same times honestly produce two different figures, and neither is wrong.

True

One run is not a form line

Sample H's single runner spans 16.9 points across six of its own runs, and dropping the best one moves its average by 1.45 points. Six runs is already a small record; one run is a sample of one.

The four false beliefs, in one calculation eachthe highest figure wins sample A: top-rated finished 3rd, winner rated 4th, top-rated won 3 of 8 a figure that wins 37.5% of the time loses 62.5% of the time an official rating measures speed sample B: +6, 0, +5, -2, 0, -1 for a net of +8 lb over six runs one win is 75% of the whole six-run change, which is a judgement the string tells you how good the runs were sample A: 48 of 48 positions, 0 of 48 margins the input that would answer the question is absent every time the ground is already inside the figure sample C: the allowance is worth 19.2 points, the weight 0.6 sample G: the allowance is printed on 0 of 40 cards

What all six beliefs have in common

Each one treats a summary as a measurement. A mark, a string and a figure are all compressions of something that already happened, and each was built for a purpose narrower than the reader's question: the mark exists to set weights, the string exists to summarise finishing order, and the figure exists to compare runs on one scale. None of them was built to answer which competitor will win the next race, and the desk's samples are what happens when they are asked to.

Where to go next

What a figure cannot saythe three limits with numbers Every figure in one placethe arithmetic behind each belief Questionstwelve answers in full