Every figure, and where it comes from

This page collects the arithmetic of the desk so that none of it has to be taken on trust. Every number on this site derives from the eight invented samples below; each block names its sample and shows the working, so any figure can be re-derived rather than believed.

Open the partner account What a figure cannot say

Sample spec

Samples: 8 invented
Figures derived: every number on the desk
Quoted from a company: none
Real competitors named: none

the stringThe finishing position of the last six runs, newest first. On the samples it carries 48 of 48 positions and 0 of 48 margins, distances, grounds or field sizes.

the markThe official rating, set so a field of similar marks finishes close together on paper. On the samples it moved on four of six runs, for a net change of 8 lb.

the allowanceThe correction applied to a standard time for the ground. On the samples the going allowance is worth 19.2 points at six furlongs, against 2.4 points for the whole weight spread.

Direct answerEvery figure on this desk comes from one of eight invented samples: a form string of 48 runs, a mark that moved 8 lb across six runs, a 6f race whose going allowance is worth 19.2 points, a meeting of 24 races, a weight spread of 12 lb, a 40-entry handicap, an audit of 40 cards and one runner's six speed figures spanning 16.9 points. No number on the site is quoted from a real operator, race, track or rating service.

The eight samples at a glance

48 of 48positions the string carries (sample A)

0 of 48margins, distances, grounds or field sizes it carries

+8 lbnet move of one mark in six runs (sample B)

19.2points the going allowance is worth at 6f (sample C)

7 of 24races where the ground disagreed with the times (sample D)

2.4points a 12 lb weight spread is worth at 6f (sample E)

40 → 20entries to runners, on 1 lb of mark (sample F)

0 of 40cards printing the standard time or the allowance (sample G)

16.9points between one runner's own best and worst run (sample H)

Every calculation, sample by sample

Sample A - the string: 48 runs, one input each8 runners x 6 runs = 48 positions published 48 of 48 distance, going, field size and margin published 0 of 48 each run is described by 1 input and by 0 of the 4 that qualify it

Sample B - the mark: 78 to 86 over six runs+6, 0, +5, -2, 0, -1 = net +8 moved on 4 of 6 runs mean over six runs 14 / 6 = 2.33 lb mean over the four that moved 14 / 4 = 3.50 lb largest move +6 is 75% of the net move of all six weight form: a field headed at 9-12 by a runner on 88 makes 86 into 138 - 2 = 136 lb = 9-10

Sample C - the speed figure: one race, four inputsstandard time 70.00 s, allowance +0.32 s a furlong, 6f adjusted standard 70.00 + 1.92 = 71.92 s scale 10 points a second from a base of 80, weight credit 0.2 a lb over 9-00 winner 71.40 s = 85.2 + 0.4 = 85.6 second 71.70 s = 82.2 - 0.2 = 82.0 third 72.00 s = 79.2 - 0.6 = 78.6 the allowance is worth 19.2 points; the weight carries 0.6 at most; first to third is a 7.0 point gap

Sample D - the going: 24 races, three descriptionsgood 6, good to soft 9, soft 9 = 24 allowance table +0.08 / +0.20 / +0.32 s a furlong times ran 0.28 to 0.36 s a furlong slow 7 of 24 races sat in a band other than the published one = 29.2% 0 of 24 cards published the allowance applied the description changed once, after race 12

Sample E - the weight: a 12 lb spread9-12 = 138 lb, 9-00 = 126 lb, spread 12 lb = 5.44 kg at 0.2 points a pound: 12 x 0.2 = 2.4 points 6 lb penalty 1.2 points, 7 lb claim 1.4 points, 3 lb age allowance 0.6 points the weight spread is 12.5% of the 19.2 point going allowance

Sample F - the conditions: 40 entries, 20 runnersthe 20th mark was 74 and the 21st was 73 the ballot turned on 1 lb of mark, published 5 days before the race one declared runner carried a 6 lb penalty = 1.2 points one three-year-old received 3 lb = 0.6 points

Sample G - the card: 40 cards, nine itemsweight 40, form string 40, letters defined 31, mark 27 third-party figure 12, runs behind the string 6, stick reading 2 standard time 0, going allowance 0 the figure is published on 12 cards and its inputs on none

Sample H - the sample: six runs, one summary82.0, 79.4, 88.1, 71.2, 84.0, 80.3 sum 485.0, mean 80.83, median 81.15 range 88.1 - 71.2 = 16.9 drop the best (485.0 - 88.1) / 5 = 79.38, a 1.45 point fall drop the worst (485.0 - 71.2) / 5 = 82.76, a 1.93 point rise the runner's own range is 2.4 times the 7.0 point margin of sample C

What the eight samples say together

Three conclusions follow and all three are arithmetic. The inputs that can be checked by anyone who knows the convention (a weight, a string of positions) are on every card, and the inputs that make a figure verifiable (the standard time, the allowance) are on none of the forty. The corrections applied to a figure are not evenly sized: the ground is worth nineteen points and the weight two, in the same race on the same scale. And the noise inside one competitor's own record is larger than the gap between competitors in a single race, by a factor of 2.4 in the samples used here.

One page, no exceptions. Nothing on this page is measured from a real event. The eight samples were created for this desk, the arithmetic they support is shown in full, and the only real things on the site are the conventions being described and the disclosed partner link in the masthead.

Where to go next

The string and its codessample A in full How a speed figure is computedsample C in full What a race card printssample G in full