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The Form Line / The speed figure
The figure ยท part three
How a speed figure is computed
A speed figure is the only figure on a card that starts from a measurement rather than a judgement: a time. What is done with the time is where the figures diverge, because the corrections applied to it are chosen by whoever publishes it.
Sample spec
- Sample standard time (6f)
- 70.00 s
- Going allowance
- +0.32 s a furlong
- Adjusted standard
- 71.92 s
- Scale
- 10 points a second
the stringThe finishing position of the last six runs, newest first. On the samples it carries 48 of 48 positions and 0 of 48 margins, distances, grounds or field sizes.
the markThe official rating, set so a field of similar marks finishes close together on paper. On the samples it moved on four of six runs, for a net change of 8 lb.
the allowanceThe correction applied to a standard time for the ground. On the samples the going allowance is worth 19.2 points at six furlongs, against 2.4 points for the whole weight spread.
Direct answerA speed figure compares a run's time with a standard time for the same distance, adds an allowance for how slow the ground was, credits the weight carried, and scales the result onto a points system. Four inputs, and only one of them - the time - is a measurement. The standard time, the ground allowance and the scale are chosen by the publisher, so two figures for the same run can differ while both being computed correctly.
Sample C is one invented 6f race. It is used across this desk because it shows which input dominates: the ground correction moves the figures further than every other input put together.
The four inputs, one at a time
Sample C - the four inputs and where each one comes from
| Input | Value in the sample | Where it comes from | Measured or chosen? |
| the time | 71.40 s | the race | measured |
| standard time, 6f | 70.00 s | the publisher's tables | chosen |
| going allowance | +0.32 s a furlong | the publisher, from the meeting's times | chosen |
| the scale | 10 points a second | the publisher | chosen |
| Four inputs | one measurement | three publisher's decisions | 1 of 4 |
Sample C - three runners, the same race, the whole arithmeticstandard time 70.00 s, allowance +0.32 s a furlong, 6 furlongs
6 x 0.32 = 1.92, so adjusted standard = 71.92 s
scale: figure = 80 + (adjusted standard - time) x 10, then the weight credit
winner ran 71.40 71.92 - 71.40 = 0.52 s under
80 + 5.2 = 85.2
carried 9-02, 2 lb over 9-00, credit 2 x 0.2 = +0.4
figure 85.6
second ran 71.70 71.92 - 71.70 = 0.22 s under
80 + 2.2 = 82.2
carried 8-13, 1 lb under 9-00, credit -0.2
figure 82.0
third ran 72.00 71.92 - 72.00 = 0.08 s over
80 - 0.8 = 79.2
carried 8-11, 3 lb under 9-00, credit -0.6
figure 78.6
what each input was worth across the three runners
the going allowance 19.2 points, on every one of them
the weight carried 0.6 points at most
the gap first to third 7.0 points
The going allowance is more than twice the whole spread of the field. That is a statement about the sample's own scale and its own allowance, and it is the reason the allowance is the first thing to look for on any figure that was computed from a time. A publisher who uses a smaller allowance will produce the same ranking and a different set of numbers.
The scale is a choice, and it changes the gaps
Sample C's scale is ten points a second, with 80 as the base for a run exactly on the adjusted standard. Change the scale and every gap between runners changes with it, while the order stays the same. The sample's own runners separate by 7.0 points on this scale; the same race on a scale of five points a second would separate them by 3.5, and on twenty by 14.0. A figure quoted without its scale is a ranking in disguise.
The number that is missing. In sample G, 40 invented cards were read for what they print. The form string is on 40 of 40 and the weights are on 40 of 40. A third-party speed figure is on 12 of 40. The standard time is on 0 of 40 and the going allowance is on 0 of 40. The figure built from those two inputs is published four times more often than the inputs themselves.
- Look for the standard time before you look at the figure: without it the figure is not verifiable.
- Look for the going allowance for the meeting, not the description of the ground.
- Check whether the figure already contains the weight credit, or the card is giving you two rows to add yourself.
- Compare figures only from one publisher: two scales will rank the same runners and disagree on every number.
- Remember what the figure does not contain at all - the position, the trouble in running and the pace of the race.
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