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The Form Line / The going
The figure ยท part four
The ground the time was run on
Every time on a card was run on a particular surface in a particular state, and that state is the largest single correction applied to a speed figure. It is also the least precisely published number on the card.
Sample spec
- Races in the sample meeting
- 24
- Description published
- 24 of 24
- Disagreeing with the times
- 7 of 24
- Allowance published
- 0 of 24
the stringThe finishing position of the last six runs, newest first. On the samples it carries 48 of 48 positions and 0 of 48 margins, distances, grounds or field sizes.
the markThe official rating, set so a field of similar marks finishes close together on paper. On the samples it moved on four of six runs, for a net change of 8 lb.
the allowanceThe correction applied to a standard time for the ground. On the samples the going allowance is worth 19.2 points at six furlongs, against 2.4 points for the whole weight spread.
Direct answerThe going is the condition of the ground: firm at one end of the scale and heavy at the other. It is published as a description - good, good to soft, soft - and it is also measured, by a penetrometer reading taken on the course and by the times recorded in the meeting's races. The description is published; the measurement usually is not; and the two do not always agree.
Three measurements describe the same ground, and they are not interchangeable. The description is a judgement, the stick reading is an instrument, and the times are an aggregate of everything that happened in every race run on it. A speed figure is computed from the third of those, using an allowance derived from it.
Sample D - three published descriptions, and what the sample charges each one
| Description | Allowance used | Over 6f | Worth on the sample's scale |
|---|
| good | +0.08 s a furlong | +0.48 s | 4.8 points |
| good to soft | +0.20 s a furlong | +1.20 s | 12.0 points |
| soft | +0.32 s a furlong | +1.92 s | 19.2 points |
| Three descriptions | 0.08 to 0.32 s | 0.48 to 1.92 s | a 14.4 point swing |
|---|
Sample D - one meeting, twenty-four races, three ways of describing itthe published description of the ground, race by race
good 6 races
good to soft 9 races
soft 9 races
total 24 races, and the description changed once, after race 12
the stick readings taken on the course
lowest 6.2, highest 8.4, on the sample's own 1 to 15 scale
a 2.2 point spread on the instrument, which the sample's
allowance table turns into about 0.04 s a furlong, or
0.24 s over 6f = 2.4 points
the times recorded in the meeting
0.28 to 0.36 s a furlong slower than the sample's standard
which is a soft-ground band on the sample's table
where the two disagree
races whose times sat in a band other than the published one 7 of 24
7 / 24 = 29.2%
races that published the allowance actually used 0 of 24
The disagreement is the finding, not a scandal. A description is written as a judgement for readers and it covers a whole meeting; a time is a single race and it is affected by the pace, the field and the rail position as well as the ground. Seven races out of twenty-four is a normal amount of daylight between the two, and it means a figure computed on a time carries some of the meeting's weather in it.
The stick and the times
A penetrometer reading is taken before racing and it measures the resistance of the surface at a handful of points on the course. That makes it a sample of a strip, and it is the only input of the three that is taken before anything is run. The times are the opposite: they are the only input that reflects what actually happened, and they are the slowest to be known, because they need a full meeting of races to aggregate. The description sits between the two, being a judgement made from both.
- Read the description as a band, not a value: good to soft covers a range.
- Look for a change during the meeting. In the sample the description moved after race 12 of 24.
- Ask which allowance was used before comparing two figures from one meeting.
- Treat a stick reading as a sample of the course, not a reading of the race.
- Remember that a slow time can be a slow ground or a slow race, and the card usually tells you neither.
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